Frank's Weather Blog |
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by Frank Wilt, posted Feb 22 2012 4:58PM
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It may be breezy today but it's a southwest wind and that means warmer temperatures on the wind. Tonights low will stay around 40 and Thursday promises to be more spring like than February weather with Sunshine and 70 for an afternoon high.
A cold front will move through the area Friday bringing some showers, although most of the rain will probably stay to our south in areas that really don't need anymore rain right now but are suffering from flooding. Friday's temps will reach the 60s.
High pressure builds in Saturday with cooler, more normal temperatures and partly sunny skies. As that high builds in wind will increase and Saturday morning could be down right cold with lows in the 20's wind chills will make it feel like the teens. Highs for the weekend only in the 40s. |
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by Frank Wilt, posted Feb 21 2012 7:32PM
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A warm southerly flow of air will keep warm temperatures over the area for the next two days with highs around 60 under Parly Cloudy skies on Wednesday and in the low to mid 70s for Thursday. An approaching cold front will bring more rain to the south on Thursday and could mean heavy rain and even thunderstorms for us on Friday.
The weekend forecast is for cooler temperatures with highs in the 40s Saturday and near 50 Sunday. Lows in the 20s. |
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by Frank Wilt, posted Feb 21 2012 8:22AM
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Some warmer than normal temperatures are headed our way over the next couple days with highs today near 50, Wednesday closer to 60 and Thursday 70 to 75.
That will change Friday when a cold front heads our way bringing with it some rain, maybe even a thunderstorm and cooler more normal temperatures for February over the weekend.
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by Frank Wilt, posted Feb 20 2012 7:29PM
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High pressure will move off the coast Tuesday and interact with a southwest flow of air that should bring some really mild temperatures to the valley mid week. Look for highs Wednesday in the 60's and Thursday some parts of the valley might touch on the 70 degree mark. Between now and then we will be in between a cold front to our north and a low pressure system to our south. That means lots of clouds for Tuesday but only a slight chance of any rain.
Here's a map for those interested in weekend snowfall totals courtesy of the National Weather Service.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/events/snowmaps/ |
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by Frank Wilt, posted Feb 20 2012 6:10AM
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High pressure will bring lots of sunshine to the area today and clear skies tonight. A southwest flow of air will bring very mild temperatures to the valley by mid week with highs reaching into the 60s on Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will move through on Friday bringing slightly cooler temperatures and some clouds for the weekend but overall mild weather will stay with us all week.
Here's some of the snow fall totals from Sunday's storm.
Harrisonburg at WSVA 1"
Massanutten 2"
Luray 1"
Greenville 10"
Fishersville 9.5"
Stuarts Draft 6"
Waynesboro 5" - 7"
Weyers Cave 4"
Churchville 3.5"
Staunton 6.5"
Monterey 1"
Charlottesville 6"
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by Frank Wilt, posted Feb 19 2012 9:36PM
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Winter Weather Advisory for Rockingham
Snow has finally arrived in the Central Shenandoah Valley and while most of the accumulation will be to the south, we will see a couple inches in the area. WSVA will be on the air with cancellations and weather all night tonight and during Early Mornings Monday morning.
Winter Storm Warning for August County South |
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by Frank Wilt, posted Feb 19 2012 7:45AM
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WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AUGUSTA COUNTY SOUTH
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY
It's looking now like Augusta County will be included in this Snow event while Rockingham County will see a little snow and Shenandoah County will probably lose out for snow lovers.
Most of the moisture stays to our south. At best it looks like 1 to 2 inches of snow this evening into from Harrisonburg north, more over Augusta and the heaviest snow falling over the Southern Valley and Southwest Virginia as well as portions of Kentucky near the Virginia border.
After tonight temperatures begin to rebound and sunshine will return tomorrow. We might reach 60 by Wednesday.
Snowfall predictions for comparison
AccuWeather: 1 - 3 inches in Rockingham County, 1" for Shenandoah County and north
3 - 6 inches to the South and in higher elevations
National Weather Service: 1 to 3 for Augusta, Rockingham and maybe an inch for Shenandoah
and north.
The Weather Channel: A mix of rain and snow for Rockingham, Augusta, no precipitation for
Shenandoah.
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by Frank Wilt, posted Feb 18 2012 4:35PM
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Updated at 10:18 p.m.
The possiblity of snow for Harrisonburg and areas now are continuing to dwindle tonight as it appears more and more that the majority of the moisture from this storm will stay south and east of the Central and Northern Shenandoah Valley. The National Weather Service has now cancelled the Winter Storm Watch and replaced it with a Winter Weather Advisory for Rockingham and Augusta as well as Highland and Pendleton County. Shenandoah County has been totally removed from any advisorys and current guidance is pointing to the Northern Valley only seeing a trace to perhaps an 1" of snow.
A Winter Weather Advisory in affect for Rockingham, Augusta
map courtesy of Capital Weather
A Winter Storm Warning for the Southern Valley
While the colder air from the north continues to drop south, moisture associated with the Gulf storm coming from the south with enteract on Sunday bringing a mix of rain and snow first and then snow up and down the valley by afternoon.
The heavest snow should stay to our east and south with areas like Roanoke, Blacksburg and perhaps even Charlottesville seeing 6 to 12 inches. Rockbridge, Bath and perhaps even Augusta county may see 3 to 6 inches while Harrisonburg, Woodstock, Winchester more likely seeing 1 to 3 inches in the valley. Mountains and higher elevations could see a little more.
Current Snowfall Predictions
AccuWeather: Total accumulation: 1-3 inches in the valley, and 3 to
perhaps 6 inches in the higher elevations and also in the valley south of Harrisonburg
National Weather Service: 1 to 2 " for Rockingham, Augusta, Highland and Pendleton. 1 inch in Shenandoah County
The Weather Channel: Augusta County 2-4", Rockingham 1-2" and Shenandoah 1"
We will continue to monitor this storm at WSVA and keep you updated with AccuWeather forecasts on air and updates here at wsvaonline.com.
-Frank Wilt
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by Frank Wilt, posted Feb 18 2012 8:05AM
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A Winter Storm Watch remains in affect for Sunday but it's looking more and more like Sunday's storm will be disappointing to the snow lovers out there. Like we've been saying since Thursday, the track of this storm will determine exactly how much if any snow makes it the valley. Right now it looks like the low pressure system building out of the south will win out and reduce the chance of measureable snow for a good portion of the valley. It appears the system will build over South Carolina, track north in North Carolina late Sunday and then move off the coast.
This means a better chance that the bulk of the moisture will stay to the south of us, reducing snowfall amounts to a couple inches in areas from Augusta County north with the heavest snow falling in the Southern Shenandoah Valley and parts of southeastern Virginia.
Needless to say, if you're planning to travel south toward Roanoke or Blacksburg, you'll won't to leave early or consider changing your plans.
This map from the guys at Capital Weather gives a good breakdown of what we'll probably see as far as accumulation.
Current Accumulation Predictions
AccuWeather 1 - 3 inches in the valley and 3 - 6 " in the higher elevations
National Weather Service 2 to 5 inches
The Weather Channel 1 - 2 inches
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by Frank Wilt, posted Feb 17 2012 3:16PM
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The National Weather Service has now issued a Winter Storm Watch for Sunday with the possibility of 5 or more inches of snow. Right now the computer models appear to be be favoring more a snow event from Southwest Virginia up the Valley but again that could change before the storm gets here, it all depends on the timing and the exact track the storm takes.
High pressure will build into the area tonight into Saturday making for another Sunny day Saturday with temperatures back up in the 50's. Then a fast moving system to our north is expected to drag colder air into the area late Saturday into early Sunday as it slides off the coast.
The low forming in the Gulf should move to over the Carlolinas by early Sunday and bump up against that colder air by Sunday afternoon, right about the time the precipitation will start to move from North Carlolina into Southwest Virginia and on up the Valley.
Depending on what happens next will determine how much snow we see. If the low continues to move north then we get hit with lots of snow, if it's pushed off the coast by the high to our north then less snow.
The map above shows yet another scenero and that's based on the temperatures being so warm here in the valley. Will the precipation change to snow? If so, how much snow will actually stick considering the temperatures won't be dropping until Sunday and with Saturday topping out in the 50's. (It would be quite a different matter if we had been in the 20s and 30s for highs over the past couple weeks).
Current snowfall predictions
AccuWeather 6 to 10"
National Weather Service 5" or more
The Weather Channel 3 to 5"
We'll continue to monitor the storm with updates here on wsvaonline and the latest forecasts all weekend on 550 WSVA as well. |
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by Frank Wilt, posted Feb 17 2012 2:58PM
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...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.
* ACCUMULATIONS...5 OR MORE INCHES POSSIBLE.
* TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SUNDAY...LOWS IN
THE LOWER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT.
* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
* IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
SNOW. ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED...CREATING HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
THIS STORM WILL EXHIBIT A TIGHT GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH WILL
DETERMINE EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...SO PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
&&
$$
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by Frank Wilt, posted Feb 17 2012 6:43AM
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There's still some uncertainty in the exact track this weekends storm may take and the slightest variation in that track could mean more or less snow for the valley. Right now most computer models are favoring this storm bringing snow to the area from Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
Based on the current forecast we may see 6 to 10 inches of snow before it ends Sunday night. Monday temperatures will start to rebound and melt the snow with highs going into the 40s.
Here's some good links to follow for more discussion of this storm.
AccuWeather
Capital Weather
National Weather Service
Stay with 550 WSVA this weekend for the latest forecast updates and to find out what's cancelled.
-Frank Wilt |
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by Frank Wilt, posted Feb 16 2012 5:01PM
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Things are coming together for what might be the first major snow storm of this season. This weekend two systems may affect our weather and depending on the timing and the exact track of the storm could mean either rain or snow. Here's the breakdown.
1. A system now over California will dip south and into Mexico should reorganize over the Gulf of Mexico before heading north east up the coast, bringing with it a great deal of moisture.
2. A cold high pressure system will drop South over our area by the weekend.
If the moisture from the gulf comes far enough north and interacts with that cold air we may see snow. Then again, there's a possiblity the moisture arrives too late and the high pushes that moisture off the coast before making it into the Valley. Here's what could happen.
A. High moves in to the area and pushes the rain/snow out to sea.
B. The moisture arrives but the cold air stays aloaf and we see mainly rain.
C. SNOW! The bulk of the moisture tracks far enough north, the cold air drops and we see SNOW, perhaps 6 to 12 inches.
WHEN WILL WE KNOW?
It may not be until late Friday or even Saturday before we know exactly how this storm will come together, which makes it very difficult to say exactly "how much" if any rain/snow we will see.
-Frank Wilt
WSVA
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